Hardware & making · Durable canon
By 2029 no computer or “machine intelligence” will have passed the Turing Test
longbets.org · first seen 2012 · unchecked
34.7durability77% evidence confidence
Why it endures
Independent rediscovery across 4 active years.
The score rewards recurring year-relative traction, distinct submitters, and strong appearances separated across HN generations. Link survival does not change cultural durability.
Read the original ↗- Submissions
- 6
- People
- 6
- Peak
- 55
- Status
- unchecked
Submission history
2012—2025
Bars show the number of normalized submissions in each year. Annual traction inside the score is percentile-adjusted.
Explainable score
Every point has a reason.
Repeat traction0.0/30
Independent discovery14.7/20
Persistence15.0/20
Generational reach0.0/20
Sustained discussion5.0/10
